Abstract
In recent times, disasters and risk management have gained significant attention, especially with increasing awareness of the risks and increasing impact of natural and other hazards especially in the developing world. Vulnerability, the potential for loss of life or property from disaster, has biophysical or social dimensions. Social vulnerability relates to societal attributes which has negative impacts on disaster outcomes. This study sought to develop a spatially explicit index of social vulnerability, thus addressing the dearth of research in this area in sub-Saharan Africa. Nineteen variables were identified covering various aspects. Descriptive analysis of these variables revealed high heterogeneity across the South West region of Nigeria for both the state and the local government areas (LGAs). Feature identification using correlation analysis identified six important variables. Factor analysis identified two dimensions, namely accessibility and socioeconomic conditions, from this subset. A social vulnerability index (SoVI) showed that Ondo and Ekiti have more vulnerable LGAs than other states in the region. About 50% of the LGAs in Osun and Ogun have a relatively low social vulnerability. Distribution of the SoVI shows that there are great differences within states as well as across regions. Scores of population density, disability and poverty have a high margin of error in relation to mean state scores. The study showed that with a geographical information system there are opportunities to model social vulnerability and monitor its evolution and dynamics across the continent.
Highlights
Hazards are the precursors of disasters, but all hazards do not need to develop into disasters
The results of the study represent an important dimension in the study of disaster risk management in Nigeria
The study provides an opportunity for the development of spatial database infrastructure for monitoring people and places for disaster risk management in the country
Summary
Hazards are the precursors of disasters, but all hazards do not need to develop into disasters. Places and people could be vulnerable as a result of biophysical or social attributes (Cutter 1996). Biophysical vulnerability relates to attributes of events and the physical conditions which influence the potential for losses and the ability to recover. Social vulnerability (SoV) relates to the attributes of the society which could impact negatively the outcome of disasters or hazard events. Poverty and various other factors could make people and places susceptible to harm and hinder their ability to respond to signs and warnings and cope with the consequences of disasters. Social fabric could include community experience with hazard, ability to respond, cope, recover and adapt – all of which are influenced by the housing, economic and demographic attributes of the place (Cutter, Boruff & Shirley 2003)
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