Abstract
An integrated modeling system has been developed for analyzing the impact of climate change on snowmelt runoff in Kaidu Watershed, Northwest China. The system couples Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3 (HadCM3) outputs with Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM). The SRM was verified against observed discharge for outlet hydrological station of the watershed during the period from April to September in 2001 and generally performed well for Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (EF) and water balance coefficient (RE). The EF is approximately over 0.8, and the water balance error is lower than ± 10%, indicating reasonable prediction accuracy. The Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) was used to downscale coarse outputs of HadCM3, and then the downscaled future climate data were used as inputs of the SRM. Four scenarios were considered for analyzing the climate change impact on snowmelt flow in the Kaidu Watershed. And the results indicated that watershed hydrology would alter under different climate change scenarios. The stream flow in spring is likely to increase with the increased mean temperature; the discharge and peck flow in summer decrease with the decreased precipitation under Scenarios 1 and 2. Moreover, the consideration of the change in cryosphere area would intensify the variability of stream flow under Scenarios 3 and 4. The modeling results provide useful decision support for water resources management.
Highlights
Northwest of China is a typical arid region, which is characterized by low and irregular rainfall, high temperature, and evaporation
Simulations were performed for the Kaidu Watershed, where the conventional meteorological data were available for the period of 2001
The best performance of the model is found in May, and the worst performance of the model is found in April with the lowest EF value of 0.32, and the lowest RE value of 0.84
Summary
Northwest of China is a typical arid region, which is characterized by low and irregular rainfall, high temperature, and evaporation. A major proportion of flow in the rivers in this region is contributed by snow and glacier-fed river catchments located in the mountainous area [1]. In springs, the inflow coming from the snowmelt process is accounting for an average of approximately 70% of total annual river flow [2]. Snowmelt is the major source of many rivers and significantly contributes to the local populace and social-economic development. It is essential to estimate the snowmelt runoff for these mountainous catchments and evaluate the impact of climate change on snowmelt runoff for water resources management of the arid area
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