Abstract

A simple model, PROMOD, predicts the growth of a forest following canopy closure, i.e. under conditions in which the foliage biomass has attained a steady state. The principal output from PROMOD is peak mean annual increment. However, additional output available includes the closed-canopy leaf area index, evapotranspiration and water use efficiency. In addition, an indication of biomass partitioning around the time of peak MAI and the relative effects different environmental factors play in limiting production can be obtained. PROMOD is based on a generalisation of a simple forest growth model which predicts biomass production and partitioning at the stand level with a daily or annual time step. The minimum level of inputs required by PROMOD are of a quality and quantity that forest managers can readily and cheaply obtain for screening prospective plantation sites: the latitude, longitude, altitude, slope and aspect of the site and a classification of the soil depth, texture, stoniness, drainage and a rating of site fertility. However, PROMOD can be run using daily inputs of weather data and hence predict the seasonal variation of production. The closed-canopy leaf area index is calculated from the mean annual rainfall and temperature at the site, and a simple rating of site fertility. Annual production is calculated as the sum of daily production and takes diurnal temperature variation and possible seasonal photosynthetic acclimation into account. A simple soil water balance model is included in which water use is based on a crop factor which is a function of soil water content and a water use efficiency which is a function of vapour pressure deficit. The model was developed on the basis of data from nine plots of Eucalyptus globulus in south-eastern Tasmania and in Western Australia, and was validated using data from 19 plots in northern Tasmania.

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