Abstract
Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is one of the major public-health problems in China. Based on the HFMD data of the Department of Health of Shandong Province, we propose a dynamic model with periodic transmission rates to investigate the seasonal HFMD. After evaluating the basic reproduction number, we analyze the dynamical behaviors of the model and simulate the HFMD data of Shandong Province. By carrying out the sensitivity analysis of some key parameters, we conclude that the recessive subpopulation plays an important role in the spread of HFMD, and only quarantining the infected is not an effective measure in controlling the disease.
Highlights
Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a common infectious disease among infants and children
HFMD is caused by a group of enterovirus which mainly include coxsackievirus A16 (CA16) and enterovirus 71 (EV71) [4]
With these parameter values, we can roughly estimate that the basic reproduction number R0 1.04 > 1, which show that HFMD in Shandong Province persist under current circumstances
Summary
Foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a common infectious disease among infants and children. HFMD, SEIIeQR model, Recessive, Basic reproduction number, Periodic solutions. We firstly determine the basic reproduction number and analyze the dynamic behaviors of the model, and carry out numerical simulations and the sensitivity analysis of some key parameters.
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