Modelling runoff components and hydrological processes in glaciated catchments of the inner Tien-Shan, Kyrgyzstan

Abstract

Accurately quantifying runoff sources and understanding hydrological processes in glaciated mountain basins is essential for effective water resource management in the face of climate change. This study aimed to determine the contributions from various runoff sources in glaciated basins within the inner Tien-Shan mountains of Kyrgyzstan by utilizing integrated land surface, glacier energy-mass balance, and river routing models. To account for local topographic influences on solar radiation and cloud transmissivity processes, gridded meteorological forcing data were downscaled. The integrated models were then evaluated against observed discharge, glacier mass balance, and snow water equivalent, with a focus on the Kara-Batkak glacier reference site. Shortwave radiation correction was particularly important for improving the accuracy of model simulations. The results indicate that the peak glacier melt contribution occurs in July and August, with some basins reaching up to 54%. On an annual basis, the average contribution from glaciers across the basins was found to be 19%, while the ratios of snowmelt and rainfall were 58% and 23%, respectively. This study highlights the utility of integrated modelling approaches in understanding and quantifying runoff components in data-scarce high mountain regions. The incorporation of observed glacier data proved to be crucial for accurately representing hydrological processes under current climatic conditions. These findings underscore the significance of considering glacier dynamics and their influence on water resources to inform effective water management strategies in glaciated mountain basins.