Modelling residential land values using geographic and geometric accessibility in Guatemala City

Abstract

Location and accessibility are core concepts for land-value research. However, the perspective is still limited in their conceptual and methodological application to cities from the Global South. The objective of this research is to bridge concepts and definitions to comprehensively operationalize accessibility indicators and uncover its relation with residential land-values in Guatemala City. We developed a multivariate regression model using the following access metrics: (1) geographic-access indices that were computed using time-based analyses per transport mode; (2) geometric-access metrics estimated via Space Syntax at various spatial scales; (3) a proposed geometric via geographic-access metric computed as potential access to network centrality. A variable selection process allowed to assess the information contribution of each variable in building a parsimonious model. We assessed the model in the context of model variations that represent common approaches used in existing literature. Geographic access to the core business district has the highest impact on the land-values, followed by proximity to urban areas with high geometric-access, measured as geometric via geographic access. Geometric accessibility at neighbourhood and city-wide scales add spatialized information that contributes to a parsimonious model and reduces spatial dependence. The model yielded the highest goodness of fit and prediction accuracy compared with the model variations. We concluded that Guatemala City land-values follow a predominant monocentric structure. Additionally, potential access to vital urban areas as identified via Space Syntax denotes the presence of economic activities, or potential for such, which were not explicitly addressed through the geographic-access metrics. The results have limitations but pose methodological possibilities relevant for research and practice in similar Latin American cities.