Modelling renewable energy impact on the electricity market in India

Abstract

Renewable power generation development, most notably for wind and solar, has taken off at a rapid pace in India especially in the last 4 years. While these developments have many positive aspects, a rapid shift in balance of baseload and intermittent generation must be assessed carefully to ensure the share of renewable power generation increases without compromising system security and economics. Seasonal and spatial variability of wind, and to a lesser extent that of solar, can render these resources to have low availability for a significant part of the year leading to an increase in unserved energy, i.e., deteriorate system reliability. The intermittency of generation also impacts on inter-state power flows and lead to higher congestion in the grid. Climate model results provide a rich set of information on the nature of solar/wind variability that can be embedded in an electricity market simulation tool to assess these impacts on prices, generation dispatch and power flows. We have developed a modelling analysis for the Indian national electricity market informed by CSIRO climate model results. We have assessed the added costs arising from intermittency to put in perspective the true costs and benefits of renewable power. We have focused on the near-term developments in 2017 to show how some of the high renewable growth scenarios included in the Indian National Electricity Plan may imply significant pressure on inter-state/region transfer capability, and lead to a significant worsening of system reliability. The outcome of our modelling analysis suggests that a more orderly and balanced development of renewable and conventional power generation capacity is needed with a stronger focus on system economics and security.