Modelling Potential Distribution of Snow Leopards in Pamir, Northern Pakistan: Implications for Human–Snow Leopard Conflicts

Wajid Rashid,Muhammad Naveed Baloch,Inam Ur Rahim,Muhammad Qasim,Eve Bohnett,Bilal Ahmad,Fangyuan Yang,Imran Khan,Jianbin Shi

doi:10.3390/su132313229

Abstract

The snow leopard (Panthera uncia) is a cryptic and rare big cat inhabiting Asia’s remote and harsh elevated areas. Its population has decreased across the globe for various reasons, including human–snow leopard conflicts (HSCs). Understanding the snow leopard’s distribution range and habitat interactions with human/livestock is essential for understanding the ecological context in which HSCs occur and thus gives insights into how to mitigate HSCs. In this study, a MaxEnt model predicted the snow leopard’s potential distribution and analyzed the land use/cover to determine the habitat interactions of snow leopards with human/livestock in Karakoram–Pamir, northern Pakistan. The results indicated an excellent model performance for predicting the species’ potential distribution. The variables with higher contributions to the model were the mean diurnal temperature range (51.7%), annual temperature range (18.5%), aspect (14.2%), and land cover (6.9%). The model predicted approximately 10% of the study area as a highly suitable habitat for snow leopards. Appropriate areas included those at an altitude ranging from 2721 to 4825 m, with a mean elevation of 3796.9 ± 432 m, overlapping between suitable snow leopard habitats and human presence. The human encroachment (human settlements and agriculture) in suitable snow leopard habitat increased by 115% between 2008 and 2018. Increasing encroachment and a clear overlap between snow leopard suitable habitat and human activities, signs of growing competition between wildlife and human/livestock for limited rangeland resources, may have contributed to increasing HSCs. A sound land use plan is needed to minimize overlaps between suitable snow leopard habitat and human presence to mitigate HSCs in the long run.

Highlights

Introduction distributed under the terms andThe snow leopard (Panthera uncia) is a rare and secretive carnivore inhabiting the highAsian mountainous regions of 12 Asian countries [1]
The main reasons for this are the increasing human population, habitat fragmentation, illegal hunting, declining populations of their prey species, and livestock-depredation-induced human–snow leopard conflicts (HSC) that usually lead to retaliatory killings of snow leopards [1,9,11,12]
The current study aimed to model the snow leopard distribution in the co known distribution in northern Pakistan and assess the overlap of the snow leop itat with human activities

Summary

Introduction

Asian mountainous regions of 12 Asian countries [1] It is a flagship and umbrella species that has attained an iconic status and conservation priority around the globe [2], mainly because the conservation of snow leopards has direct implications for the conservation of conditions of the Creative Commons. Protecting snow leopards will correspondingly help conserve these high-altitude rangeland and wetland ecosystems. These ecosystems can in turn provide necessary ecosystem services required for human wellbeing and sustainable development [5,6,7]. The declining population of snow leopards is a threat to the ecosystem services these high-altitude regions provide [18,19,20]

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Results

Discussion

Conclusion