Modelling opportunities of potential European abandoned farmland to contribute to environmental policy targets

Abstract

Farmland abandonment is a major proximate driver of landscape change in European rural areas and is often followed by natural revegetation. In certain conditions, it might be preferable to prevent or reverse farmland abandonment or manage these areas towards active restoration (i.e., guided rewilding with wild or domesticated animals). These alternative responses to farmland abandonment lead to context-dependent impacts, which can potentially contribute to European Green Deal objectives for environment and rural areas. While previous studies analysed direct impacts of abandonment, there is little insight into how alternative ways of managing abandoned farmland can best contribute to environmental policy goals, and what type of management is preferred where. To assess opportunities in these areas, we compared three abandonment trajectories: natural revegetation, active restoration with rewilding, and extensive re-farming. We analysed the potential positive and negative environmental and cultural impacts of developing these management strategies in all farmland locations that could potentially be abandoned across Europe. Mapping and quantification of the benefits and risks associated with different management responses to abandonment indicate a large spatial variation across regions. While natural revegetation can support high benefits for carbon sequestration and erosion reduction, it is also linked to more frequent trade-offs than re-farming and rewilding. However, there is a very strong spatial variation in these trade-offs. It is worthwhile to focus on areas with the largest gains and fewest trade-offs when targeting investments for prevention of abandonment or rewilding. Our maps can help inform interventions in abandoned farmland to maximise the potential contributions of these lands to the European Green Deal environmental and rural policy targets.