Modelling Oil-Sector Dependency of Tax Revenues in a Resource Rich Country: Evidence from Azerbaijan

Abstract

Forecasting tax revenues is an important issue in budget planning. As a resource rich country, Azerbaijan’s budget revenues is severely depend on oil price and production levels. This study investigates oil sector dependency of state budget tax revenues in case of Azerbaijan by employing FMOLS, DOLS and CCR cointegration methods for the period of 2000Q1 – 2015Q2. Empirical results indicate statistically and economically significant positive long‑run impact of both oil related factors on tax revenues. Considering current fiscal challenges in the country, research findings are very useful for policy purposes and fills the gap in the literature by drawing mechanism of the association and estimating the relationship empirically.