Modelling of supply and demand-side determinants of liquefied petroleum gas consumption in peri-urban Cameroon, Ghana and Kenya

Matthew Shupler,Seeba Amenga-Etego,Bertrand Mbatchou,Judith Mangeni,Edna Sang,Emily Nix,Reginald Quansah,Jason Saah,Theresa Tawiah,Kwaku Poku Asante,Mieks Twumasi,Emmanuel Betang,Diana Menya,Elisa Puzzolo,Daniel Pope,Rachel Anderson De Cuevas,Miranda Baame

doi:10.1038/s41560-021-00933-3

Abstract

Household transitions to cleaner cooking fuels (for example, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG)) have historically been studied from a demand perspective, with clean energy usage expected to increase with improvements in household socio-economic status. Although recent studies demonstrate the importance of supply-side determinants in increasing clean cooking, few large-scale studies have assessed their importance quantitatively, relative to demand-related factors. Here, as part of the CLEAN-Air(Africa) study, we examine a population-based survey (n = 5,638) of cooking practices in peri-urban communities within Cameroon, Kenya and Ghana. Multilevel logistic and log-linear regression assessed the demand and supply-side determinants of LPG usage (primary versus secondary fuel) and consumption (kilograms per capita per year), respectively. Supply-side factors (for example, cylinder refill and transportation costs) and the use of single versus multiburner stoves were better predictors than household socio-economic status for both the probability of primarily cooking with LPG and the annual LPG consumption. These results highlight the need for policies that promote LPG supply and stove equipment to meet household needs.

Highlights

Household transitions to cleaner cooking fuels (for example, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG)) have historically been studied from a demand perspective, with clean energy usage expected to increase with improvements in household socio-economic status
The prevalence of exclusive LPG users in the study sample was minimal (4%), a 20% higher prevalence of a consistent availability of LPG reported among exclusive LPG users in Obuasi and Eldoret compared with that for households that stacked LPG with a polluting fuel (Supplementary Table 3) indicates that an unreliable supply of LPG is a critical deterrent to a full transition to clean cooking
Households indicating that LPG was always available at retailers had a 25% higher predicted probability of using LPG as a primary fuel than those that reported that it was unavailable for purchase at least once per month, irrespective of household socio-economic status (SES) (Table 2)

Summary

Introduction

Household transitions to cleaner cooking fuels (for example, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG)) have historically been studied from a demand perspective, with clean energy usage expected to increase with improvements in household socio-economic status. Supply-side factors (for example, cylinder refill and transportation costs) and the use of single versus multiburner stoves were better predictors than household socio-economic status for both the probability of primarily cooking with LPG and the annual LPG consumption. Exposure to PM2.5 in household air pollution is causally associated with many adverse health outcomes, which include cardiopulmonary and respiratory diseases[3,4,5,6] Fuels such as coal and charcoal generally emit lower levels of PM2.5 than other polluting fuels[7], their combustion generates high levels of carbon monoxide, which has been linked to increased blood pressure[8] and adverse pregnancy outcomes[9]. Using LPG for cooking can decrease localized deforestation and reduce the time spent gathering and cooking with polluting fuels[7,20]

Methods

Findings

Discussion

Conclusion