Abstract
A macroscopic industrial ecological model has been developed to investigate the effects of changes in industrial structure on social well-being in general and health services in particular. The model is composed of various measures of industrial and employment structures, social and economic stocks, and environmental and pollution indicators as well as the health service sector. The model description is based on the system dynamics of these components. The simulation model was calibrated using available data of the past 60 years for the above setting in Japan. The simulation studies indicated that the gradual shift, in the industrial structure of Japan, from agriculture, light manufacture and heavy industry in the past to more emphasis on commercial and service industry in recent and coming years, would improve the level of living standards in Japan resulting in enhanced health service capability and lower death rate but with increasing adult disease rates and decreasing environmental capacity to absorb pollution in the year of 2000.
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