Modelling of future changes in the water regime of the Upper Kama River

Abstract

Calculations of future changes in the water regime for the Kama reservoir basin were carried out based on the ECOMAG regional semi-distributed runoff formation model and data from an ensemble of four atmosphere-ocean general circulation models using the RCP2.6 and RCP6.0 scenarios. Estimates of changes in the runoff of the Upper Kama River are presented for the middle and end of the 21st century relative to the historical period 1986 – 2005. The downward trend in both annual and summer water inflow into the Kama reservoir will continue in the future, despite an increase in winter runoff. Moreover, the decrease in runoff will be more significant under the RCP6.0 scenario. Despite the increase in precipitation up to 10%, the decrease in the annual runoff of the Upper Kama River will be from 4% to 17% due to intense warming in the catchment area by 2–5°C, depending on the season of the year, the period of the 21st century and the RCP scenario.