Modelling of Developing Socio-economic Systems Using Multiparadigm Simulation Modelling: Advancing Towards Complexity Theory and Synergetics

Abstract

AbstractThe purpose of this research is to examine model designs and approaches based on using modern paradigms and technological solutions in the field of simulation modelling of socio-economic processes and social forecasting that allow us to study complex dynamic phenomena emerging in the course of development of socio-economic systems.Strategic management of the socio-economic system involves the analysis of structural changes and dynamic aspects of its development. The socio-economic system can demonstrate a specific dynamic behaviour in terms of development. While searching for effective modelling constructs, we are studying socio-economic systems due to several reasons, such as:• the necessity of choosing and analysing of the development pathway while formulating a strategy;• analysis of structural changes and dynamic complexity of socio-economic systems;• the need to consider behavioural aspects of individual social behaviour and the activity of individual elements of a complex social system;• the representation of self-organisation in social systems where the dynamic behaviour can be demonstrated spontaneously, depending on the internal structure and the influences from the external environment.Design/methodology/approach—the processes observed in the society and socio-economic phenomena are similar to those studied in the branch of systemological sciences called synergetics. The chapter discusses the methodology and general technological approach to building simulation models describing such phenomena in socio-economic systems. A public system model is supposed to link the micro-level, where individuals (organisation) make decisions and act to the macro-level, describing the state, the basic structure and development of the system. All model variables are constantly changing for a long time under the influence of external and internal factors, thus transforming the structure and properties of the socio-economic system. Within the macro-level model, designs are produced utilising the aggregated system dynamics models describing the evolution and processes of development of social systems, the main elements: population, economy, production and social infrastructure, environment and other factors of social life. By describing microprocesses aggregated system dynamics models of socio-economic systems are complemented by agent-based models of individual social and economic behaviour of decision-makers, as well as describing the interaction between multiple social groups. The agent-based model allows investigating the individual behaviour of different groups of agents, the specifics of their adaptation to the changing environment, and how the processes of self-organisation influence the evolution and development of the socio-economic system as a whole.Findings—This approach in building a multi-model complex based composite system dynamics and agent-based simulation models allows to investigate the dynamics and development of socio-economic processes through cyclical relationship of micro- and macro- levels in a socio-economic system.Originality/value—The chapter gives an account of conceptual approaches to the formation of multi-model complexes of evolving socio-economic systems. The approaches are predicated on the provisions of the theory of complexity and synergetics, as well as the stratification methods of model complexes.Research/ Practical/ Social/ Environment implications—A simulation model of the socio-economic system acts as the core of the procedure of strategic decision making in the think tanks, along with the monitoring system, data analysis, methods of generating scenarios, the technology of the scenario studies and analysing their results. Expert audit procedures and expert cognitive analysis are used for stratification, ontological design of simulated socio-economic systems, the formation of possible scenarios, reproducible on simulation models, and modelling “balance of interests”.Research limitations—The considered techniques of building the models of socio-economic systems have been developed and applied by the author of this chapter for building the dynamic models in the social sphere (health, housing, pension system), a regional system, the collaborative supply chain.KeywordsSynergeticsComplexity theorySocio-economic systemStratificationSimulation modellingSystem dynamicsAgent-based modellingOntologies