Abstract
The regional effects of climate change on forest ecosystems in the temperate climate zone of Europe can be modelled as shifts of forest vegetation zones in the landscape, northward and to higher elevations. This study applies a biogeographical model of climate conditions in the forest vegetation zones of the Central European landscape, in order to predict the impact of future climate change on the most widespread tree species in European deciduous forests—the European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.). The biogeographical model is supported by a suite of software applications in the GIS environment. The model outputs are defined as a set of conditions - climate scenario A1B by the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) for a forecast period, for a specified geographical area and with ecological conditions appropriate for the European beech, which provide regional scenarios for predicted future climatic conditions in the context of the European beech’s environmental requirements. These predicted changes can be graphically visualized. The results of the model scenarios for regional climate change show that in the Czech Republic from 2070 onwards, optimal growing conditions for the European beech will only exist in some parts of those areas where it currently occurs naturally. Based on these results, it is highly recommended that the national strategy for sustainable forest management in the Czech Republic be partly re-evaluated. Thus, the presented biogeographical model of climate conditions in forest vegetation zones can be applied, not only to generate regional scenarios of climate change in the landscape, but also as a support tool for the development of a sustainable forest management strategy.
Highlights
Severe and more frequent drought events are expected to become a major risk for forest ecosystems under predicted climate change [1]
In the face of change and uncertainty [6], a forester needs to know the types of forests that will be most suitable under future climatic conditions
Conversions to more drought-adapted forest types have been recommended in order to prevent climate change-induced forest dieback, and this should be the aim of any adaptive management, especially in areas where monocultures of drought-sensitive Norway spruce
Summary
Severe and more frequent drought events are expected to become a major risk for forest ecosystems under predicted climate change [1]. A substantial increase in air temperature, along with a simultaneous reduction in precipitation during the growing season in Central and Southern Europe, will increase the likelihood of long and intensive summer droughts, which may have severe effects on vegetation in natural and managed ecosystems [5] Timber production from these ecosystems needs to be maintained because timber is a renewable material and, as such, it represents an environmentally viable material option. A complete forest conversion takes up to 120 years [8], a gradual process of introducing drought-tolerant species into drought-sensitive conifer monocultures provides immediate benefits, with the short-term enhancement of biodiversity, and the maintenance of timber production This process includes planning for future long-term conditions
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