Modelling of Change in Fuel Mix within a District Heating Network

Abstract

Changing the fuel mix used in the heating industry, i.e., switching to greener fuels, is one of the possible solutions to prevent rising costs for final consumers in the context of rising emission allowance prices. This paper presents a methodology that offers the possibility to perform a comprehensive technical and economic assessment of a theoretical solution—changing the fuel mix of centralized heating sources—and other strategic decisions within a district’s heating systems. Emphasis is placed on fuels with a negative price, such as municipal waste. The presented approach can also be used to assess the effect of other significant changes related to the configuration of district heating systems on the economy of the plant, such as the impact of a decrease in heat demand and implementation of a steam turbine. The key benefit of this paper is an approach based on mathematical modelling of the operation of individual boilers with different operating parameters in terms of their start-up, shutdown, and mode of operation. A unique approach of optimizing an operation’s schedule using dynamic programming is presented, which enables the selection of a suitable solution for the configuration of binary variables in consecutive time steps. In this way, it is possible to achieve a more accurate estimate of the economics of the facility at the strategic planning stage that will consider the real operational capabilities of the heat source given its technical limitations. Using this approach, up to a 4% reduction in variable operating costs was achieved in the model case, when compared to static time interval planning.