Abstract

The performance of a stochastic model, in which Poisson cluster processes represent the arrival of rain cells within a rainstorm, is assessed for hourly point rainfall data from Birmingham, UK. The Bartlett-Lewis Rectangular Pulse Model is extended to include random cell duration, and its performance is compared with that of the basic model analysed previously. Both models perform well in reproducing statistics of the rainfall depth distribution at different time-scales for individual months, but the randomised model also enables a good reproduction of the proportions of dry periods of different durations. Performance is improved by an optimisation method which addresses issues of parameter identification. However, some deficiencies remain with respect to extreme values. Finally, the seasonal variability of parameters is represented on a daily, rather than monthly basis, with comparable results.

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