Modelling multi-hazard threats to cultural heritage sites and environmental sustainability: The present and future scenarios

Abstract

Cultural heritage sites, particularly those in mountainous regions face serious threats as mountains are hazardous places and many of them are located on shifting tectonic plates and live under the threat of earthquakes and related activities. Alongside, mountains are also exposed to atmospheric interactions and rainfall plays an important role in land movement activities through seepage of rainwater in fragile structures. Moreover, gravity pushing along with land use and climate change induced changing rainfall patterns and modification of slope lead to several hazards in mountainous regions. Environmental degradation in terms of soil erosion, loss of forests, and agricultural products are common phenomena in mountainous regions due to various multi-hazard threats. Therefore, it is necessary to conserve and management of our mountain environments as it is essential to the survival of the global ecosystem. Thus, the current research article focused on multi-hazard susceptibility mapping and evaluation of its risk assessment in some of the famous cultural heritage sites in the eastern Himalayan region of Sikkim state, India. Multi-hazard susceptibility mapping was carried out using boosted regression tree (BRT), Bayesian additive regression tree (BART) and Bayesian generalized linear model (BGLM) considering twenty-two conditioning factors and seismic activity, as this region is highly susceptible to earthquakes. The future climate and land use change were estimated using four representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios and Dynamic Conversion of Land-Use and its Effects (Dyna-CLUE) model respectively to identify future multi-hazard susceptibility areas and vulnerable cultural heritage sites. The novelty of this study is to a combination of machine learning, RCPs derived future climate and Dyna-CLUE induced future land use change estimation for multi-hazard modelling and identification of vulnerable cultural heritage sites. The result of this study will help land use planners and archaeologists to adopt proper management strategies for protecting the cultural heritage sites and maintaining environmental sustainability for the proper management of mountain resources.