MODELLING MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES TO MITIGATE THE EFFECTS OF ALTERATIONS OF TEMPERATURE AND OF CO2 CONCENTRATION ON MAIZE

Camilo De Lelis Teixeira De Andrade,Tales Antônio Amaral,Bruna Gomes Magalhães,Daniela De Carvalho Lopes,Antonio José Steidle Neto,Isabel Regina Prazeres De Souza

doi:10.18512/rbms2021v20e1210

Camilo De Lelis Teixeira De Andrade, Tales Antônio Amaral + Show 4 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.18512/rbms2021v20e1210

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Abstract

Ongoing climate change may affect rainfed maize yield in Brazil, which can be attenuated by some crop management strategies. This work had the objective of evaluating, using computational modeling, management practices with potential to mitigate the effects of changes in temperature and CO 2 concentration on maize yield. The CSM-CERES-Maize model was applied to simulate the mitigating potential of using maize cultivars with 0.3 m, 0.5 m and 0.7 m deep root system, associated with 0 t ha -1 , 2 t ha -1 and 4 t ha -1 of crop residue left on the soil surface. A set of 33 years of daily weather data, along with soil profile data, were used to evaluate the approach in 10 regions of the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil. For most of the regions, the use of mulching and of a maize cultivar with deeper root system was not capable of attenuating the temperature rise. In contrast, any factor limiting root growth of maize to a depth of 0.30 m, causes significant yield drop, even for a scenario of reducing temperature by 3 o C or rising CO 2 concentration. In warmer and drier regions, the positive response of maize to the increase in CO 2 concentration was more pronounced.

Highlights

MODELAGEM DE ESTRATÉGIAS DE MANEJO PARA MITIGAR OS EFEITOS DE ALTERAÇÕES NA TEMPERATURA E NA CONCENTRAÇÃO DE CO2 NO MILHO
Statistical analyses indicated that no significant interaction, at 5% probability level, was found between depth of the root system, temperature and amount of residue left on the soil surface and between depth of the root system and amount of residue in any of the study regions
For the other scenarios of temperature levels (T+6 and T+9), it was found that the yield did not differ statistically for the amounts of residue left on the soil surface

Summary

Introduction

MODELAGEM DE ESTRATÉGIAS DE MANEJO PARA MITIGAR OS EFEITOS DE ALTERAÇÕES NA TEMPERATURA E NA CONCENTRAÇÃO DE CO2 NO MILHO. In tropical and subtropical regions of Africa and South America a reduction of 3t ha-1 in crop yield is expected due to the increase in plant maintenance respiration and to the decrease in soil moisture, both in response to the rise in temperature (Levis et al, 2018). The increase in both CO2 concentration and temperature can affect maize production, either by individual or by combined effect (Maldaner et al, 2014). In turn, reduce the rate of crop development and in some cases can even paralyze the entire process (Bergamaschi and Matzenauer, 2014; Cruz et al, 2011)

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