Modelling land suitability to evaluate the potential for irrigated agriculture in the Nile region in Sudan

Abstract

The Nile River serves as a central source of water for around 487 million people. Agriculture in the riparian states largely depends on the Nile's water supply due to irrigation. In this study, the potential for irrigated agriculture in Sudan is evaluated to estimate the future increase in water pressure in the region. In geographic information system (GIS) software a model for land suitability analysis (LSA) is developed. Datasets of parameters such as precipitation, temperature, slope, landcover, and selected soil properties represent the prevailing conditions. The resulting maps of the LSA show suitable and not suitable areas for irrigated agriculture. To determine the yearly water demand for irrigated agriculture the suitable areas are offset by the irrigation water demand for mixed cultivation of Faba beans, sorghum, and sugarcane calculated with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United States (FAO) software AquaCrop. It shows that there is great potential for irrigated agriculture, especially in the southeast, where large irrigation schemes already exist. In northern Sudan, not suitable areas accumulate. The calculated irrigation water demand is 33.5 BCM/year, which is 19.5 BCM/year additionally compared to 2017. The estimated irrigation amount shows the importance of collaboration between the countries in the Nile basin to increase the water resources available for irrigation to avoid conflict over resources. The uncontrolled extension of irrigated agriculture in Sudan will increase the pressure on the already scarce water resources in Egypt.