Modelling land condition to augment Land Degradation Neutrality assessments - The succulent Karoo biome of South Africa as a case study

Abstract

Land degradation is a threat to ecosystems and to already vulnerable people who live in dryland environments. The United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) has been tasked with addressing the global challenges posed by land degradation. Although the complexities around land degradation have more recently been acknowledged, spatial modelling of this phenomenon remains a global challenge. In this study, measures of productivity derived from Landsat 8 and Sentinel-2A data have been integrated with local climate, land use, and socio-economic data to provide a more meaningful regional conceptual framework for land degradation. We create a novel method to map land condition utilising a set of 26 biological, topographic, climatic and land use covariates. The model results can be viewed in isolation as a measure of vegetation cover but are more useful when interpreted within the context of the environmental covariates. This can be accomplished through the Succulent Karoo Land Condition Inspector Google Earth Engine application. The data are intended to assist conservation planners in providing spatial data related to the current condition of the land in the biome, as well as to highlight areas where biodiversity is potentially at greater threat and where restoration initiatives or climate change adaptation are most needed.