Abstract

A simulated maximum likelihood (SML) estimator is derived in order to estimate a jump-diffusion model of interest rates, which takes explicitly into account the monetary system by forcing a corridor on the short term interest rates. In order to obtain the SML estimator, we develop a method to simulate a diffusion process through certain values at future time points. The method is based on Monte Carlo simulations where we make use of a discretization scheme for the dynamics. A finite difference approach is used to obtain the entire term structure of interest rates. The method is applied on interest rate data from the German money market, and the results show that the authorities only have direct impact on the short end of the term structure, given that they try to change the level of the corridor.

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