Modelling inland Arctic bathymetry from space using cloud-based machine learning and Sentinel-2

Abstract

Lakes and ponds are extensive features throughout the circumpolar region, spanning a broad range of environmental conditions which controls their hydro-ecological processes and spatiotemporal distribution. The physical characteristics of these freshwater ecosystems, including their extent and depth, are particularly responsive to climatic conditions. Thus, having the ability to efficiently map and monitor these elements is crucial as the climate continues to warm, especially over large spatial extents. In this study, satellite derived bathymetry (SDB) methods were implemented to model regional inland Arctic water depths within the open-source and cloud-based Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform. High-resolution (10 m) spectral reflectance data from Sentinel-2 was used as covariates in non-parametric and non-linear machine learning (ML) models, namely random forest (RF), support vector regression (SVR), and classification and regression trees (CART). These three ML models were also compared to a more classical and parametric multiple linear regression (MLR) model. All models were calibrated using in situ bathymetric data collected near the Toolik Field Station, in the Alaskan Arctic tundra. With such a large sample repository available, the effects of training set size, noise, and multicollinearity on model performance was comprehensively investigated. Results clearly demonstrated the superior efficacy and robustness of the RF algorithm for predicting water depths, achieving a best coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.74, mean absolute error (MAE) of 2.12 m, and root mean square error (RMSE) of 3.04 m. Overall, this study highlights the potential of advanced and flexible ML algorithms within the GEE, and demonstrates the capabilities of the polar-orbiting Copernicus Sentinel-2 satellite for this Arctic application. In the future, this ML-driven methodology can be applied using GEE’s cloud infrastructure to produce updated, cost-effective, and accurate bathymetry maps over large expanses of the Arctic tundra.