Modelling ingrowth in Mediterranean pine forests: a case study from Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and Mediterranean Maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Ait.) stands in Spain

Abstract

National Forest Inventories (NFI) are a basic tool for forestry planning at the National level. A new two-step system for predicting ingrowth compatible with NFI data is presented in order to improve long-term estimation of stand condition. In growth and yield models, an ingrowth submodel is a key feature for long-term estimation. An accurate projection of ingrowth is needed to avoid model projection bias and inaccuracy. A two-step approach was used, which consisted of (I) estimating the probability of ingrowth occurrence on a sample plot and (II) quantifying the ingrowth in terms of basal area. Logistic regression was used for step 1, while linear regression was used for step 2. A good performance of the joint ingrowth model for Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and Mediterranean Maritime pine (Pinus pinaster AiSsp mesogeensis) stands was observed. Logistic model include quadratic mean diameter as independent variables for both species while basal area is only included for Mediterranean Maritime. Quadratic mean diameter is the only independent variable in linear model for both species. The presented two-step modeling methodology for ingrowth is applicable to data from National Forest Inventories with concentric plots.