Modelling infrastructure systems: A hybrid approach for system transition

Abstract

The depletion of energy resources, the quest for security-of-supply and the need to mitigate climate change may require or invoke for a transition of energy infrastructures. We conjecture that the phenomenon of transitions is not sufficiently understood to merit high expectations from transition management since energy infrastructures are complex, large scale socio-technical systems. Transitions are not only multi-layered phenomena; they include feedback loops within and across layers. We have combined four complementary approaches - Socio-technical regimes, social theory, Institutional Economics and Actor-Network theory - to unravel the phenomenon of transitions and present a functional specification of a transition modelling framework. We suggest the development of a hybrid modelling approach to enable the analysis of transitions of socio-technical systems, to provide support to decision-makers involved in shaping their transition and to explore the feasibility of transition management. System dynamics and agent-based modelling are suitable modelling paradigms using energy infrastructures as an example, as a first step towards enabling transition management.