Modelling Industrial Growth in The Coastal Area of Semarang Metropolitan Region Using GeOBIA

Abstract

Central Java Province has the manufacturing industry sector as the largest economic contributor. This manufacturing industry sector growth is mainly supported by the strategic location and infrastructures on the northern coast of Central Java Province (Kendal-Semarang-Demak). However, the high increase of industrial built-up area in the coastal area of Semarang Metropolitan Region has an impact on the conversion of coastal land if the growth cannot be controlled through the spatial plan implementation. This study identified the direction and trends of industrial growth in the coastal area of Semarang Metropolitan Region in 2015-2020 and the industrial growth prediction in 2030 for assessing the industrial zones in spatial plan 2011-2031. This research consists the estimation of industrial built-up area growth using the combination of GeOBIA method and manual interpretation of high-resolution satellite imagery (Sentinel-2A) from 2015 to 2020 and assessment of industrial zones in spatial plan based on the industrial growth prediction model in 2030 using the Cellular Automata Markov (CA-Markov). Industrial built-up area tends to grow towards the western and eastern part of the coastal area of Semarang Metropolitan Region based on map distribution and area growth. The results showed more than 20 % of industrial land is not suitable with the spatial plan in 2020 and it predicted will be increased in 2030, it is necessary to increase the efforts to control the spatial use.