Modelling induced mode switch behaviour in Bangladesh: A multinomial logistic regression approach

Abstract

This paper assesses induced mode switch behaviour with the construction of transport infrastructure using flyovers as a case study. Understanding travel mode switch behaviour is essential to identify the reasons for choosing one mode of transport over another. Travel mode switch behaviour needs to be considered for efficient transport infrastructure planning. However, very little is known about mode switch behaviour of individuals due to the construction of transport infrastructure such as flyovers on roadways particularly in the context of developing countries.This research examines whether the construction of flyover infrastructure induces travel mode switch behaviour of individuals. The study also considers a non-flyover road in order to have a comparison between results from flyover and non-flyover users. The objective of this research are: to measure induced mode switch behaviour caused by the construction of transport infrastructure; and to model induced mode switch behaviour. Using purposive sampling technique, the data was collected through an intercept survey and online questionnaire from 1060 vehicle users who used flyover and non-flyover roads based on the percentage of modal share in Dhaka.A Multinomial logistic regression model determined that flyovers have a significant impact on induced travel mode switch behaviour of individuals. Induced mode switch made by non-flyover road users are also reported. The study found that flyover users were three times more likely to shift their travel mode to private transport in order to save travel time compared to the flyover users who did not change their travel mode. This research suggests that the benefits of travel time savings for each travel mode should be taken into account when providing or evaluating new transport infrastructure. Otherwise, traffic congestion will return due to an increase of private transport, and will minimize the benefits of travel time savings.