Modelling Impacts of Land Cover Change on Critical Water Resources in the Motueka River Catchment, New Zealand

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After the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model was calibrated and validated to historic flow records for the current land use conditions, two additional land cover scenarios (a prehistoric land cover and a potential maximum plantation pine cover) were used to evaluate the impacts of land cover change on total water yields, groundwater flow, and quick flow in the Motueka River catchment, New Zealand. Low-flow characteristics and their potential impacts on availability for water abstraction and for support of in-stream habitat values were focused on. The results showed that the annual total water yields, quick flow and baseflow decreased moderately in the two scenarios when compared with the current actual land use. The annual water balance for the pine potential land cover scenario did not differ substantially from the prehistoric scenario for the catchment as whole. However, there were more notable differences among individual tributary catchments, which could be attributed to the relative area of land cover altered and location of those catchments. Simulated low flows for the prehistoric and potential pine land cover scenarios were both significantly lower than the low flows for the current land use. In summary, under the current land use conditions, both annual water yield and low flow are higher than was the case before human intervention in the area or in a maximum commercial reforestation scenario.