Abstract
Individual-based models have gained popularity in ecology, and enable simultaneous incorporation of spatial explicitness and population dynamic processes to understand spatio-temporal patterns of populations. We introduce an individual-based model for understanding and predicting spatial hen harrier (Circus cyaneus) population dynamics in Great Britain. The model uses a landscape with habitat, prey and game management indices. The hen harrier population was initialised according to empirical census estimates for 1988/89 and simulated until 2030, and predictions for 1998, 2004 and 2010 were compared to empirical census estimates for respective years. The model produced a good qualitative match to overall trends between 1989 and 2010. Parameter explorations revealed relatively high elasticity in particular to demographic parameters such as juvenile male mortality. This highlights the need for robust parameter estimates from empirical research. There are clearly challenges for replication of real-world population trends, but this model provides a useful tool for increasing understanding of drivers of hen harrier dynamics and focusing research efforts in order to inform conflict management decisions.
Highlights
The relationship between large predators and humans has always been a difficult one [1], [2]
In this paper we introduce an individual-based model for understanding and predicting the spatio-temporal dynamics of a hen harrier population
HEATH = 20.0 ha, persecution mortality factor (PMF) = 1.0, juvenile male winter mortality (JMmort) = 64%, grouse moor burning index threshold (GMBIT) = 2), the breeding population began with an average of 576 pairs (Figure 4)
Summary
The relationship between large predators and humans has always been a difficult one [1], [2]. Predators either threaten human life or compete with humans over shared resources and, as a consequence, a common response has been to try and remove them from ecosystems (e.g., [3], [4]) Such action often brings land managers and local communities into conflict with conservation practitioners who seek to protect these often rare and threatened species. In the absence of any human interference, we would expect the abundance of predators to vary between areas in relation to, among other factors, food abundance and habitat An understanding of this variation is valuable in predicting where the impact of predators on prey of human interest is likely to be greatest and where the often limited conservation resources should be focused
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