Modelling Hegemonic Power Transition in Cyberspace

Dmitry Brizhinev,Roger Bradbury,Nathan Ryan

doi:10.1155/2018/9306128

Abstract

Cyberspace is the newest domain of conflict and cooperation between states. In cyberspace, as in all other domains, land, sea, air, and space, these interactions often lead to the emergence of hegemons which are characterised by their predominant influence over global world order and all other states. We examined the emergence and collapse of hegemons in a modelled cyberspace world through the notions of power transition and power diffusion. We used Repast Simphony to construct a simple agent-based model (ABM) of a system of states interacting both competitively and cooperatively in this world. Our simple model parsimoniously captures the character of the real international system of states through simple parameters of wealth and power determining the outcome of attack or cooperation amongst pairwise interacting states. We found hegemons of global world order emerged in cyberspace as they do in the other traditional domains from models with these few parameters. And we found that hegemons, contrary to traditional understanding, are not exceptional states but merely occupy the tail of a continuous distribution of power and lifetimes. We also found that hegemony in the system depends on two perhaps unexpected parameters: the difficulty of acquiring power as wealth increases and the amount of cooperation between states. And as a consequence, we argue that cyberspace, as a power-diffuse domain where cooperation is easier than elsewhere, is less suited to the kind of hegemony we see in the traditional domains of state interaction.

Highlights

Cyberspace is a power-diffuse domain when compared to the traditional domains of warfare and statecraft, land, sea, air, and space
Nye [3] has argued that power diffusion, a novel process only becoming fully appreciated with the emergence of cyberspace, is one of two critical processes currently influencing world order
We argue that power diffusion is captured in the power function

Summary

Introduction

Cyberspace is a power-diffuse domain when compared to the traditional domains of warfare and statecraft, land, sea, air, and space. Scholars have convincingly argued that cyberspace is an offence-dominated domain with low barriers to entry, one that diffuses power away from traditionally powerful states and towards historically marginalised actors [1]. Procuring information communication technology (ICT) systems, acquiring zero-day exploits, and conducting computer network operations (CNOs) are considerably cheaper than large-scale military operations in the domains of land, sea, air, or space. The Sony Pictures Entertainment hack is a paradigmatic case of a historically marginalised state actor (North Korea) manipulating a third party (Sony) to create preferential outcomes for itself by pursuing aggressive statecraft against the United States, the hegemon of world order [2].

Objectives

Discussion

Conclusion