Abstract
Abstract. Regional climate change affects the flow conditions in river basins which can impact the health of aquatic ecosystems. Potential impacts of future climate scenarios on Coregonus migratorius spawning migration in the Selenga River were assessed. A regional process-based hydrological model was used to reproduce the historical trends in the annual flow and assess its future changes under several climate change scenarios. Annual flow projections were used to identify preferential river reaches for spawning activity of the Arctic cisco (Coregonus migratorius), based on the significant negative correlation of spawning activity with the Selenga River streamflow. The applied methodology shows that the projected decline in runoff of 10 % to 25 % in XXI century may result in shifting of the spawning locations further upstream of the Ulan-Ude city, a local “pollution hotspot”.
Highlights
In natural ecosystems, environmental abiotic drivers may play a crucial role in the development and survival of living organisms (Poff et al, 1997; Poff and Zimmerman, 2010; Stagl and Hattermann, 2016)
The present study examines hydroclimatic effects due to climate change on the seasonal spawning migration of Arctic cisco (Coregonus migratorius) in the Selenga Selenga River, which is the largest tributary of Lake Baikal and provides nearly a half of the annual inflow of water to the lake
A modelling approach was used to assess the effect of climate change on streamflow and hydrological conditions for Coregonus migratorius spawning
Summary
Environmental abiotic drivers may play a crucial role in the development and survival of living organisms (Poff et al, 1997; Poff and Zimmerman, 2010; Stagl and Hattermann, 2016). The reproduction, foraging, maturation and recruitment of aquatic species are dependent on flow and temperature regime, both of which are vulnerable to natural and anthropogenic impacts (Gillenwater et al, 2006; Goto et al, 2015; Stagl and Hattermann, 2016; Wang et al, 2019). The observed changes in river flow due to these impacts can be evaluated using indicators of alteration in a riverine system (Gao et al, 2009; Richter et al, 1996). The most interacting with the river flow are migratory fish species, such as salmonids, spawning in fresh water. The basic water quantity requirements for salmonid fish includes: flows (at appropriate times of the year), water depths, and flow velocities for spawning fish (Hendry et al, 2003). Whereas almost no studies were attributed to the effects of velocity to fish migration patterns of migratory fishes
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