Modelling forest degradation and risk of disease outbreaks in mainland Equatorial Guinea

Abstract

Background: Epidemiologists have testified for a rise of emerging infectious diseases (EID) events in the tropical areas undergoing forest clearance episodes and make the case for their association to forest degradation and loss. In view of this, we developed a workflow of analyses based on open data to model the EID risk in a context of forest degradation, integrating both exposure to hazardous areas and vulnerability to EID. We applied the workflow to mainland Equatorial Guinea to assess population at risk and understand how anthropic activities overlap with hazardous areas.