Modelling food system resilience: a scenario-based simulation modelling approach to explore future shocks and adaptations in the Australian food system

Abstract

This paper outlines a process for exploring food system vulnerability and resilience using scenario modelling with the Australian Stocks and Flows Framework (ASFF). The capacity of ASFF to simulate how diverse shocks and stressors affect food system behaviour across multiple sectors—with diverse, interconnected and dynamic variables shaping system response—renders ASFF particularly suited for exploring complex issues of future food supply. We used ASFF to explore the significance of alternative agricultural policies for land use, crop production, livestock production, fisheries, food processing, transport, food waste and ultimately food supply. Policies in different scenarios varied with regard to the timetable for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, the degree of government participation or regulation in the food system and the scale of solutions (varying from centralized and global to decentralized and local). Results from the scenarios suggest that Australia does not have the ability to maintain a domestic surplus of foods required for a nutritious diet. In particular, the health of the current food system is highly vulnerable to constraints in oil supply, and increased food production threatens to precipitate a drastic decline in critical water supplies. We conclude by outlining a proposed method for using ASFF to delve deeper into the dynamics of the food system, probe the consequences of various adaptive responses to food production and supply challenges and devise potential indicators for food system resilience. Shocks and stressors to be added to the next phase of scenario modelling include soil salinity, climate extremes and credit scarcity. The ASFF methodology should be applicable to other parts of the world, although appropriate recalibration and adjustment of model assumptions would be required to reflect regional differences.