Abstract
The ongoing economic pressure on farmers has resulted in lower gross margins, lower income, and a continuous decrease in the number of farmers in large parts of the world. Most remaining farmers upscale their activities by taking over the land of their former competitors, resulting in a decrease in agricultural employment and an increase in average farm size, accompanied by specialisation and new management techniques. Understanding these significant trends and their impact on the land use and environment requires a deeper knowledge of the mechanisms involved and the impacts of different policy measures. These processes are ideally represented through agent-based modelling. Currently, agent-based models are rarely for larger regions. This paper presents ADAM (Agricultural Dynamics through Agent-based Modelling), using it for the case study of Belgium. ADAM was created to obtain insights in past and current agricultural trends and to explore possible effects of policy measures. ADAM simulates the evolution of a farmer population and their farms at a fine scale on the country level. It produces yearly outputs on the number of farms, their size, and the type of farming activity on every parcel. Results show that ADAM is capable of adequately modelling a farmer population according to past trends and that it can be used to explore the results of a business-as-usual scenario, therefore showing the possibility of creating agent-based models for larger scale real-world applications.
Highlights
The ongoing industrialisation of agriculture together with the recent globalisation of agricultural markets puts pressure on the profitability of farming activities in countries with an above-average population density [1]
The spatial variation in relative increase in farm size can largely be explained by the2018, current farm sizes in these areas, which have the largest relative growth capacity
The simulations show that the number of farmers keeps decreasing and that the average farm size continues to increase with small farms leaving the system, by being taken over by bigger farms
Summary
The ongoing industrialisation of agriculture together with the recent globalisation of agricultural markets puts pressure on the profitability of farming activities in countries with an above-average population density [1]. Small and uncompetitive farmers are either forced to end their activities or do not find a successor after retirement [2]. This may allow the remaining farmers to upscale their activities by taking over the land of their former competitors. This process is often accompanied by specialisation and a change in agricultural management [2,3], allowing investments in specialised. Land 2018, 7, 109 equipment and farming technology The introduction of these more intensified farming practices increases the productivity and allows the production of more food on less land [4,5].
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
