Modelling European usage of renewable energy technologies for electricity generation

Abstract

For fourteen European countries, we model the usage of renewable energy technologies (RETs) in electricity generation within a multi-country growth curve framework. We consider a range of covariates as possible determinants of the differences in growth rates of RET usage between countries and over time. An effective way of capturing the differences between the countries is their division into four groups: slow, normal, fast and very fast growth. This division has more explanatory power than other binary variables such as the use of different incentive schemes. No evidence that changes in the price of fossil fuels (represented by oil) explained changes in the growth of RET usage over time was found. The model developed is evaluated by its accuracy in both point forecasting and density forecasting and it is used to provide forecasts of RET usage up to 2020. Greece and Belgium are identified as the two countries least likely to reach a given threshold for the proportion of RET generated electricity in 2020. • Model usage of renewable energy in electricity generation for 14 European countries • Use multi-country growth curve to explain differences between countries/over time • Latitude, carbon free generation, country clusters help explain country differences • No evidence that changes in oil price of fossil fuels explained changes over time • Model used to provide forecasts up to 2020 — Greece and Belgium lagging