Abstract
This paper presents an agent-based model (ABM) for residential end-users, which is part of a larger, interdisciplinary co-simulation framework that helps to investigate the performance of future power distribution grids (i.e., smart grid scenarios). Different modes of governance (strong, soft and self-organization) as well as end-users’ heterogeneous behavior represent key influential factors. Feedback was implemented as a measure to foster grid-beneficial behavior, which encompasses a range of monetary and non-monetary incentives (e.g., via social comparison). The model of frame selection (MFS) serves as theoretical background for modelling end-users’ decision-making. Additionally, we conducted an online survey to ground the end-user sub-model on empirical data. Despite these empirical and theoretical foundations, the model presented should be viewed as a conceptual framework, which requires further data collection. Using an example scenario, representing a lowly populated residential area (167 households) with a high share of photovoltaic systems (30%), different modes of governance were compared with regard to their suitability for improving system stability (measured in cumulated load). Both soft and strong control were able to decrease overall fluctuations as well as the mean cumulated load (by approx. 10%, based on weekly observation). However, we argue that soft control could be sufficient and more societally desirable.
Highlights
Introduction and State of ResearchThe energy system is in transition; especially the increasing share of volatile, decentral and renewable energy sources (RES) will change the structure and governance of this complex, socio-technical system
Three experiments were conducted for a seven-day period in order to examine in how far system stability on the macro-level can be improved through interventions
We have presented an interdisciplinary co-simulation framework that covers both technical and social aspects of the power distribution grid, and that allows to test different what-if scenarios of future smart grids
Summary
The energy system is in transition; especially the increasing share of volatile, decentral and renewable energy sources (RES) will change the structure and governance of this complex, socio-technical system In this context, the reorganization of the energy supply creates new uncertainties and risks, because electricity generation and consumption become harder to plan and unpredictable power fluctuations are more likely. New concepts of information management that connect distribution system operators (DSOs) and end-users (industrial, commercial and residential) offer one potential solution to tackle these challenges. In this context, the provision of electricity-related flexibilities by end-users (i.e., situational shifts in peak electricity demand) as well as energy efficiency programs are important stabilization measures when the system’s reliability is jeopardized [2]. Information and the Role(s) of End-Users in Future Energy Systems
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