Modelling emission and land-use impacts of altered bioenergy use in the future energy system

Abstract

Forest biomass is one of the few non-fossil and non-weather-dependent energy sources available in the Nordic countries. The future role of forest-based bioenergy is, however, unclear as biomass is a limited resource and has many alternative applications. This study analyses how fossil emissions and land-use is affected by forest bioenergy in the North-European heat and power sector, using an energy system model with endogenous capacity investments. The novelty of this paper lies in the detailed description of the substitution factors for different bioenergy levels toward a fully decarbonised energy system. The main results show that forest biomass remains important for heat production in the Nordic countries towards 2050 in a cost-optimal scenario. According to our model results, less use of forest biomass for heating will increase the use of fossil fuel, wind power, and power-to-heat in 2030, while in 2050 also solar PV will be used as a substitute for forest biomass. Implying that less use of forest biomass will increase the land use from wind and solar PV installation and increase and prolong the fossil carbon emission in the Nordic countries.