MODELLING EARTHQUAKE DISASTER DAMAGE DUE DEPTH OF EPICENTER AND MAGNITUDE USING SPATIAL REGRESSION

Abstract

East Java Province is geographically close to the Eurasian and Indo-Australian Plate subduction zones, resulting in frequent earthquakes East Java Province has a high population density, so it is very risky if disaster occurs. One preventive solution to reduce this impact is estimating damage when an earthquake occurs. The purpose of this study was to determine the best modeling of damages due to earthquakes in East Java Province, using the amount of house damage as a response variable, while depth of the epicenter and the strength of the earthquake as predictor variables. It is suspected that there is a spatial dependency effect in this case, so the solution is to use regression with an area approach, namely the Spatial Durbin Model (SDM). The amount of house damage is collected from BNPB, the epicenter and the magnitude of earthquake collected from BMKG in 2021. The result shows that SDM is good at explaining the dependency relationship between response and predictor variables. The significant predictor variables are the depth of epicenter and the strength of the earthquake. It is meaning that the magnitude and the depth of the epicenter of the earthquake in an area have an impact on other adjacent areas. There is a relationship between the amount of house damage in one area and other adjacent areas. The Regency will have a high number of damaged houses if it is adjacent to a Regency that has a high number of damaged houses