Modelling driving factors of PM2.5 concentrations in port cities of the Yangtze River Delta

Abstract

PM2.5 is one of the major air pollutants in port cities of the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) of China. Understanding the driving factors of PM2.5 is essential to guide air pollution prevention and control. We selected 17 major port cities in YRD to study the driving factors of PM2.5 in 2019 and 2020. Generalized Additive Models were built to model the non-linear effects of single, multiple and interactions of driving factors on the variations of PM2.5. NO2, SO2 and the day of year are most strongly associated with the variation of PM2.5 concentration when used alone. Anthropogenic emissions play complicated roles in regulating PM2.5 concentration. Although the effect of cargo throughput (CT) on PM2.5 concentration is non-monotonic, higher PM2.5 levels are found to be associated with higher levels of SO2 and CT. This work can potentially provide a scientific basis for formulating PM2.5 prevention and control policies in the region.