Modelling domestic energy consumption at district scale: A tool to support national and local energy policies

Abstract

This paper presents the development, evaluation and application of the Domestic Energy and Carbon Model (DECM) for predicting the energy consumptions and carbon dioxide emissions of the existing English housing stock. A novel feature of DECM is the adoption of an occupancy pattern model which is derived from the household employment status data. We believe this modification has significantly improved the accuracy of the estimation in space heating energy use. At national level, the model estimation of carbon emissions and gas and electricity consumptions are respectively 4.5%, 3.4% and 1.0% higher than the national statistics. At the sub-national level (Local Authority), two methods are used to produce estimations: one based on dwelling type and the other based on socio-economic class. For both methods, the correlations between the model estimations and the government records are statistically significant and substantial (all r s > 0.9 and ps<0.01). According to the results, it can be inferred that over 85% of the variance in dwelling energy consumptions and carbon emissions can be accounted for by dwelling type and the socio-economic class of households. The paper presents a local sensitivity analysis which examines the effects of various building fabric and service system parameters on the modelled average carbon emissions per dwelling. Based on the findings, a set of predictive charts are developed which can provide rapid estimations of the effect of various energy efficiency measures on dwelling energy consumptions and carbon emissions taking into account the potential rebound effect. In summary, this paper shows that the DECM model can be a useful tool to assist the formation of energy efficiency policies at both national and local levels.