Modelling discharge flows at signalised intersections with adjustment of downstream effects

Abstract

Former studies revealed that before spillbacks happen intersection capacities can still be greatly affected by downstream queues and signals. However, there is no methodology reasonably accounting for this effect. This research aims to propose adjustment factor models (Adj models) for both saturation flow rate (SFR) and start-up lost time (SLT) in through lane groups considering downstream conditions. An improved cell transmission model is created to build a simulation platform that can well reproduce the downstream influence. By the experimental data, Adj models are derived through heuristic optimisation based regression analyses. Proposed adjustment factors are governed by common traffic indicators. Sensitivity analyses proved that approaches with high volumes, short segment lengths, large green ratios, positive offset, or large cycle lengths are more easily affected by downstream conditions. Through the validation, it is proved that the estimation error of SFR and SLT can be significantly reduced by the proposed adjustment factors.