Modelling daily streamflow at ungauged catchments: what information is necessary?

Abstract

Rainfall–runoff modelling at ungauged catchments often involves the transfer of calibrated model parameters from ‘donor’ gauged catchments. However, in any rainfall–runoff model, some parameters tend to be more sensitive to the objective function, whereas others are insensitive over their entire feasible range. In this paper, we analyse the effect of selectively transferring sensitive versus insensitive parameters on streamflow predictability at ungauged catchments. We develop a simple daily time-step rainfall–runoff model [exponential bucket hydrologic model (EXP-HYDRO)] and calibrate it at 756 catchments within the continental USA. Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of (NS) is used as the objective function. The model simulates satisfactorily at 323 catchments (NS > 0.6), most of which are located in the eastern part of the USA, along the Rocky Mountain Range, and near the western Pacific coast. Of the six calibration parameters, only three parameters are found to be sensitive to NS. Two of these parameters control the hydrograph recession behaviour of a catchment, and the third parameter controls the snowmelt rate. We find that when only sensitive parameters are transferred, model performance at ungauged catchments is almost at par with that of transferring all six parameters. Conversely, the transfer of only insensitive parameters results in a significant deterioration in model performance. Results suggest that streamflow predictability at ungauged catchments using rainfall–runoff models is largely dependent on the transfer of a small subset of parameters. We recommend that, in any modelling framework, such parameters should be identified and further characterized to better understand the information controlling streamflow predictability at ungauged catchments. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.