Modelling currency demand: the case of the euro

Abstract

Liquidity management is a key mission of a central bank. In particular, the adequate provision of banknotes requires the understanding of what drives currency demand. The challenge is even bigger in the case of the European monetary union where the euro continues to develop into a well-established currency outside borders. In this respect, a novel indicator is proposed to reflect foreign demand developments. Moreover, besides the usual set of determinants, variables covering financial and economic policy uncertainty are also taken into account. The full denominational breakdown of banknotes is considered so as to unveil the heterogeneous role played by the several drivers. It is found that external demand is relevant for large denominations and uncertainty also matters for cash demand. Furthermore, the recent ECB announcement of the end of issuance of the largest denomination banknote led to a reduction in the overall demand for euro banknotes.