Modelling CSIR Long-term Electricity Least-cost Proposition

Abstract

The drive towards net-zero strategy has resulted in the global energy systems shifting from generating electricity from technologies which emit more emissions to renewable technologies that emit less emissions. The research question for this paper is “What is the least cost electricity supply technology mix for the Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) main campus in the year 2040?”. The bottom-up methodology was applied using PLEXOS-tool framework. Two scenarios were analyzed, Business as Usual (BAU) scenario, which considers the existing supply options to the CSIR, with City of Tshwane (CoT) supplying more than 80% of the electricity. No additional capacity investment was included on this scenario for the energy planning time horizon from 2018 to 2040. Least cost (LC) scenario, considers BAU scenario assumptions, however new supply options are added, and the model selects the least cost supply options. The additional capacity investment was solar photovoltaic, biogas and wind. The least cost scenario results, indicates that both wind and biogas were proven not to be financially viable for the CSIR to implement. The technology which was chosen to be financially viable for the CSIR was to add more rooftop solar PV to meet 50% of the CSIR energy demand. This will enable the CSIR to spend less, as the average cost of electricity is less than the average cost of electricity for BAU. However, the system indicates that a balanced energy mix is required to provide CSIR with the least cost electricity.