Abstract
Against the COVID-19 pandemic, non-pharmaceutical interventions have been widely applied and vaccinations have taken off. The upcoming question is how the interplay between vaccinations and social measures will shape infections and hospitalizations. Hence, we extend the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model including these elements. We calibrate it to data of Luxembourg, Austria and Sweden until 15 December 2020. Sweden results having the highest fraction of undetected, Luxembourg of infected and all three being far from herd immunity in December. We quantify the level of social interaction, showing that a level around 1/3 of before the pandemic was still required in December to keep the effective reproduction number Refft below 1, for all three countries. Aiming to vaccinate the whole population within 1 year at constant rate would require on average 1,700 fully vaccinated people/day in Luxembourg, 24,000 in Austria and 28,000 in Sweden, and could lead to herd immunity only by mid summer. Herd immunity might not be reached in 2021 if too slow vaccines rollout speeds are employed. The model thus estimates which vaccination rates are too low to allow reaching herd immunity in 2021, depending on social interactions. Vaccination will considerably, but not immediately, help to curb the infection; thus limiting social interactions remains crucial for the months to come.
Highlights
IntroductionIn December 2019, a novel strain of coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) was first reported in Wuhan, China
In December 2019, a novel strain of coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 was first reported in Wuhan, China
We develop a mathematical model of the transmission of COVID-19 within a country’s population, extending the standard Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model (Kermack et al, 1927) to include: 1) undetected cases; 2) varying social interaction; 3) the progression of severe cases through hospitalization, intensive care and eventually death or recovery and 4) vaccination
Summary
In December 2019, a novel strain of coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) was first reported in Wuhan, China In severe cases, it causes an acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), which can lead to respiratory failure, septic shock, multi-organ failure and death (Mohanty et al, 2020). Currently widely spread across the globe, short- and mediumterm modelling forecasts assess the need for containment strategies. For these purposes, one of the most employed models is the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model, for which numerous extensions have been recently developed. An extension including asymptomatic cases showed that the timing of social distancing is crucial (Gevertz et al, 2021).
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