Modelling COVID-19 transmission using IDSIM, an epidemiological-modelling desktop app with multi-level immunization capabilities

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has placed unprecedented demands on local public health units in Ontario, Canada, one of which was the need for in-house epidemiological-modelling capabilities. To address this need, Ontario Tech University and the Durham Region Health Department developed a native Windows desktop app that performs epidemiological modelling of infectious diseases. The app is an implementation of a multi-stratified compartmental epidemiological model that can accommodate multiple virus variants and levels of vaccination, as well as public health measures such as physical distancing, contact tracing followed by quarantine, and testing followed by isolation. This article presents the epidemiological model and epidemiological-simulation results obtained using the developed app. The simulations investigate the effects of different factors on COVID-19 transmission in Durham Region, including vaccination coverage, vaccine effectiveness, waning of vaccine-induced immunity, advent of the Omicron variant and effect of COVID-19 booster vaccines in reducing the number of infections and severe cases. Results indicate that, for the Delta variant, natural immunity, in addition to vaccination-induced immunity, is necessary to achieve herd immunity and that waning of vaccine-induced immunity lengthens the time necessary to reach herd immunity. In the absence of additional public health measures, a wave driven by the Omicron variant is predicted to pose significant public health challenges with infections predicted to peak in approximately two to three months, depending on the rate of administration of booster doses.