Modelling correlated damage of spatially distributed building portfolios under scenario tropical cyclones

Abstract

Probabilistic damage assessment of a community under a scenario tropical cyclone needs to consider the collective damage of individual structures within the community. This involves modelling the spatial correlations of wind speeds and structural vulnerability between individual structures. Ignoring the spatial correlations can lead to unconservative assessment. However, the methods to model these two spatial correlations and their effects on damage assessment are limited. In this paper, a general probabilistic framework is proposed to analyze the correlated damage of spatially distributed building portfolios using joint fragility functions. Two cases are investigated: (1) the correlation of fragility functions of different buildings is given, and (2) the correlation of structural resistance is given from which the correlation of fragilities is computed. To demonstrate the framework, an example is provided to analyze the roof sheathing damage of a residential building portfolio under a cyclone event.