Modelling climate variabilities and global rice production: A panel regression and time series analysis

Abstract

Climate change threatens agriculture and it remains a present global challenge to food security and Sustainable Development Goals. The potential impact on the supply of crops such as rice is seen as a major food security issue that requires intervention on several fronts. The literature on rice production, climate variations and climate change show several studies outlining various impacts on rice supply as a result of variations in temperature and rainfall. This study intends to further explore the impacts on rice production caused by temperature changes and rainfall variation by analyzing and modelling the production of rice by the top rice-producing countries globally. A time series of the national rice production and yield along with national average annual temperature and rainfall were sourced for 15 major rice-producing countries. The trends of the time series were then compared between the rice productivity variables and temperature and rainfall. A panel regression model was also developed to further assess the relationship between rice production and temperature and rainfall. The time series showed that rice production and yield are increasing for the majority of the countries analyzed. The panel regression model however showed that continued increase in temperature can result in decreased production of rice and that rainfall volume directly impacts rice output and therefore shows rice production is highly susceptible to flooding and drought events caused by climate variabilities.