Modelling Climate Change’s Impact on the Hydrology of Natura 2000 Wetland Habitats in the Vistula and Odra River Basins in Poland

Joanna O’Keeffe,Ignacy Kardel,Marta Utratna,Paweł Marcinkowski,Mikołaj Piniewski,Zbigniew Kundzewicz,Tomasz Okruszko

doi:10.3390/w11102191

Abstract

Climate change is expected to affect the water cycle through changes in precipitation, river streamflow, and soil moisture dynamics, and therefore, present a threat to groundwater and surface water-fed wetland habitats and their biodiversity. This article examines the past trends and future impacts of climate change on riparian, water-dependent habitats within the special areas of conservation (SAC) of the Natura 2000 network located within Odra and Vistula River basins in Poland. Hydrological modelling using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was driven by a set of nine EURO-CORDEX regional climate models under two greenhouse gas concentration trajectories. Changes in the duration of flooding and inundation events were used to assess climate change’s impact on surface water-fed wetland habitats. The groundwater-fed wetlands were evaluated on the basis of changes in soil water content. Information about the current conservation status, threats, and pressures that affect the habitats suggest that the wetlands might dry out. Increased precipitation projected for the future causing increased water supply to both surface water and groundwater-fed wetlands would lead to beneficial outcomes for habitats with good, average, or reduced conservation status. However, habitats with an excellent conservation status that are already in optimum condition could be negatively affected by climate change as increased soil water or duration of overbank flow would exceed their tolerance.

Highlights

Wetland bio-production has been used by man for many centuries, including fish for protein, peat for fuel, and timber and reeds for building materials [1]
Increasing trends are visible for NOD and soil water (SW)/Available water capacity (AWC), but changes are more significant for NOD, which suggests that surface water-fed wetlands will be more impacted by climate change
The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) modelling results showed a significant increase in the length of inundation and a slight increase in soil water content

Summary

Introduction

Wetland bio-production has been used by man for many centuries, including fish for protein, peat for fuel, and timber and reeds for building materials [1]. It has been shown that wetlands play a vital role in the hydrological cycle, controlling flood generation, groundwater recharge, dry season flows [2], and water quality [3]. In order to maintain ecosystem services, it is essential to keep an appropriate hydrological regime within a wetland. This regime is related to the source of water which is different for specific kinds of wetlands [4] and may be altered by rising temperatures and changing patterns of precipitation [5]. The rapidity of the ongoing and projected climatic change manifested by

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion