Modelling climate change in a Dutch polder system using the FutureViewR modelling suite

Abstract

This paper describes the development of a hydrological modelling suite, FutureViewR, which enables spatial quantification of the complex interaction between climate change, land use and soil in the Quarles van Ufford (QvU) polder entangled in and under influence of the Dutch river delta. The soil–water–atmosphere–plant (SWAP) model is used in a grid-based mode. A river module was developed to take into account seepage and percolation in the polder as an effect of the interaction with the main rivers. A simple surface water model was linked to the grid-based SWAP models. The model suite is managed from a Visual Basic (VB) interface which links the different modules. The interface uses a mainstream database management system (MS SQLServer), structured query language (SQL) and open database connectivity (ODBC) to store, transfer, manipulate and analyse model inputs and outputs. The functionality of the FutureViewR modeling suite is demonstrated by modeling a climate change scenario for 2050. The preliminary analysis showed that it is likely that the dryer summers in combination with low water levels in the Rhine and Meuse will yield a decrease in agricultural production. The wetter winters do not necessarily result in an increase in discharge, since the initial soil moisture storage at the winter onset is lower due to the dryer summers. It is concluded that the effects of climate change on polder hydrology is more intense caused by the dependence on local climate conditions and water levels on the Rhine and Meuse rivers, which are mutually reinforcing.